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Trouble is brewing for the U.S. consumer, according to one strategist, and a substantial labor market downturn could kickstart a recession. "I think the U.S. consumer is walking towards a cliff, basically," Chris Watling, chief executive of financial advisory firm Longview Economics, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Tuesday. He said that a slew of recent economic indicators had showed consumers are quickly running out of excess cash, while household savings are coming under pressure. I mean, quite the reverse, I think there are some real challenges coming for the U.S. Gross domestic product is projected to post a 4.7% annualized gain for the third quarter, according to a Dow Jones consensus estimate.
Persons: Chris Watling, CNBC's, Watling, Dow Organizations: Longview Economics, Gross, Dow Jones, Commerce Department Locations: U.S, Longview
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'The U.S. consumer is walking towards a cliff': Longview Economics CEOChris Watling, CEO at Longview Economics, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy, saying there are "some real challenges coming for the U.S.
Persons: Chris Watling Organizations: Longview, Longview Economics Locations: U.S
This stock market uptrend is nearing exhaustion, strategist says
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis stock market uptrend is nearing exhaustion, strategist saysHarry Colvin, director and senior market strategist at Longview Economics, says markets are overbought and discusses how he's positioned for it.
Persons: Harry Colvin Organizations: Longview Economics
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA recession is coming — and equity markets won’t come through it unscathed, strategist saysChris Watling, chief executive of Longview Economics, discusses the prospect of an economic recession and the outlook for equity markets and company earnings.
The latest U.S. economic data suggests a recession is coming, according to the chief executive of financial advisory firm Longview Economics, and investors may need to prepare for some pain in the stock market. Speaking to CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Friday, Chris Watling said he believed a recession was on its way, citing what he described as "pretty compelling" and "brutally bad" leading economic indicators. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell by 1.2% in March, slipping to its lowest level since November 2020. The data appeared to indicate that economic weakness could soon intensify and spread throughout the U.S. economy. "Every time you've had that in the U.S., you've had a recession.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCentral banks overtightened — now they need to hold the course, strategist saysCentral banks have "overdone" monetary tightening, according to Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, and now they need to hold the course and wait for the effects to feed through to the economy.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. equity investors should be cautious and consider shorting equities, says market strategistChris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist of Longview Economics, said equity investors in the U.S. should be cautious and consider shorting equities due to the current market environment. In an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe," Watling explained that the U.S. equity market is currently on a relative P/E ratio that has only been substantially higher during the TMT bubble and the pandemic.
The U.S. equity market is flashing warning signs, according to chief market strategist Chris Watling. The S & P 500 was trading at 3,985 on Wednesday morning at a price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 20x even as the U.S. central bank attempts to tighten financial conditions. .SPX 1Y line While investors may be tempted to stay in the market due to a lack of better options, Watling suggests otherwise. Stocks have risen over the past five months partly in response to a lack of distress in the high-yield bond market. This seems to be defying credit conditions wanted by the Federal Reserve, and Watling suggests it could be a short-term liquidity story driving the market.
The fragile state of the American economy and the euro zone’s surprise resilience could leave the European Central Bank as the lone hawk among major rate-setting institutions. Investors can benefit from the split by favouring the euro and European equities. Yields on 10-year U.S government bonds have dropped by 17 basis points to 3.62%, while equivalent German sovereign debt yields 2.29% – 15 basis points less than at the start of the year. By November it could be down to 150 basis points. On Feb. 2 the European Central Bank increased its key rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%, its fifth successive hike.
Longview Economics: More challenging earnings season next year
  + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA more challenging earnings season will probably come next year as we get into a recession: AnalystChris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics, says inflation is still high and that helps companies a lot "in terms of operating leverage."
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